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Fallacy 3
The error bound of a Monte Carlo is
where N is the
number of scenarios and
is the standard deviation of some
output like loss.
Counter Statement 3
This is the expected error and is not an error bound. The actual
error in a Monte Carlo simulation can be greater than this. If
the output variable is unbounded, the error in any set of Monte
Carlo Scenarios is unbounded as well.
The Monte Carlo may technically be bounded because of the finite
size of the generator of pseudo-random numbers where those are
used. A perfect random number generator results in no bound on
the error when the loss or output variable is unbounded. An
example is a call option on a stock. Its payoff is unbounded.
Monte Carlo estimation of its average payoff or even its price has
an error that is not bounded prior to the simulation.
Next: Discrepancy has no relation
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2005-08-14